![]() ![]() Still: Ohio State's games against Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State all carry slightly more leverage than the team's Week 1 contest and the Buckeyes have between an 83% to 85% chance to win each individually, as is the case against Notre Dame. Ohio State actually has six games with more playoff leverage than their Week 1 game, though some of those are games where the Buckeyes are heavily favored - like their 95% chance to win over Iowa. It's also, unlike with Notre Dame, not the Buckeyes highest leverage scheduled game (meaning conference championships excluded) this year. The Buckeyes playoff leverage swings 24 percentage points - as opposed to 31 for Notre Dame - with a win vs. But the stakes are a shade lower for Ohio State. Make no mistake: Week 1's marquee matchup is a very important contest for both teams. Does a two-loss SEC champion Georgia get into the playoff? What about a 12-0 Oklahoma team that loses in the Big 12 Championship Game? The Playoff Predictor can tell you the odds. And better yet: You can use the Allstate Playoff Predictor tool on to run scenarios on your own. Put it together and you've got the Allstate Playoff Predictor - which we'll be using to write about the playoff landscape in this space each week. Forecasting the selection committee's decision in each simulation, based on the past behavior of the committee.This part is handled by ESPN's Football Power Index. Projecting the remainder of the season based on the strength and schedules of each team. ![]() It's an endeavor that requires two distinct phases: For the unfamiliar, the Allstate Playoff Predictor is our statistical model that - well, you guessed it - forecasts the likelihood of each team reaching the College Football Playoff. FPI estimates Ohio State has an 84% chance to win, so if Notre Dame can win that would shake up the landscape while a Buckeye victory would only slightly reinforce the status quo. In giving Notre Dame a 30% chance to reach the playoff in Marcus Freeman's first season running the show in South Bend, the Allstate Playoff Predictor is already baking in a likely loss to the Buckeyes. 5 Fighting Irish from a 30% chance to reach the playoff to a 56% chance, while a loss would drop them to just 25% - resulting in 31 percentage points of total leverage.Īnd that's why the game is almost all upside. And there is no scheduled game in which a team faces higher total playoff leverage - the difference between its chance to reach the playoff with a win and a loss - than Notre Dame's Week 1 contest.Ī win over No. There is only one other scheduled contest all year that could raise a team's chance to reach the College Football Playoff with a win more than the Fighting Irish's trip to Columbus - only behind Michigan's own bout with the Buckeyes - according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Notre Dame's tough season opener against Ohio State on Saturday is filled with upside. How Week 1's results will impact the College Football Playoff, according to the numbersĬollege Football, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Ohio State Buckeyes, USC Trojans, Oregon Ducks, Utah Utes So far, even amid the massive, football-driven changes this summer for the Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 conferences - and perhaps still the ACC - the Fighting Irish keep passing those tests.You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser Notre Dame has long employed a three-part strategy to remain independent in football: having a committed broadcast partner, a pathway providing “adequate access” to the College Football Playoff, and a “sensible” home for the school’s Olympic sports, particularly relating to travel. And they have shown they can perform at a very high level as an independent, even in the face of confusing alliances and conference setups.” Three-Part Test “They stand above the fray, and they are uniquely positioned to remain independent. “I think Notre Dame is in a prime position - because of their independence,” Jon Miller, NBC Sports president of acquisitions and partnerships, told Front Office Sports. ![]() 13 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll as well as the Coaches Poll - begins college football’s Week 0 with a game against Navy in Dublin on Saturday in a contest originally postponed by the pandemic. That attitude will again be on full display when Notre Dame - currently ranked No. ![]()
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